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How to explode yet another Fairfax warming scare with just five minutes of checking

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Andrew Bolt Blog 

 

Yet another warming scare from Fairfax’s chief alarmist, environment editor Peter Hannam: 

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/how_to_explode_yet_another_fairfax_warming_scare_with_just_five_minutes_of_/

Vanuatu’s weather patterns are changing as the planet warms up, undermining the island nation’s ability to feed itself, according to Shirley Laban, Oxfam’s climate change manager for the country.

Prolonged warm and dry spells are reducing water availability for many of Vanuatu’s 250,000-plus population. Rainfall when it arrives is becoming more intense, cutting output of the island cabbage, a staple for many residents, Ms Laban said… Over the past 10-20 years, residents are finding themselves having to travel further to find water. 

I see not the slightest evidence in this report of Hannam trying to check the truth of the claims made - claims that too comfortably suit his own warmist ideology. 

So let me do it for him.

In fact, rainfall right now is pretty good.  Here is the Vanuatu Meteorological Services’ outlook for July to September:

Northern Region:  Above normal rainfall is favored for Lamap, normal rainfall is favored for Pekoa and Sola. (Confidence:  Low to Good)

Southern Region:  Above normal rainfall is favored for Bauerfield and Whitegrass. Normal rainfall is favored for Port Vila and below normal rainfall favored for Aneityum. (Confidence: very low to low)

In fact, dry spells have become not more prolonged but less. The University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Geophysics announced last year: 

A new reconstruction of climate in the South Pacific during the past 446 years shows rainfall varied much more dramatically before the start of the 20th century than after…

Vanuatu lies within the largest rain band in the southern hemisphere, the South Pacific Convergence Zone and its rainy season is from November to April. In the 20th century, rainfall during wet periods was about 7 feet per rainy season and during dry periods about 4 ½ feet per rainy season.

However, before the 20th century, the dry periods tended to be much drier, with rainfall as low as 1 foot per rainy season and wet periods that were still getting about 7 feet per rainy season.

In fact, there has not been any global warming for around 15 years, as Hannam’s own paper grudgingly conceded only yesterday: 

...a pause in global surface temperature rises in the past 15 years, despite the large amounts of greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere through human activity.

In fact, other warming alarmists from Vanuatu warn of not “prolonged warm and dry spells” but an increase in the rainfall that feeds aquifers. From a presentation at Griffith University from Vanuatu Government senior youth worker, Paul Nalau:

Annual mean rainfall is projected to increase… Little change is projected in the incidence of drought ...

So what might be causing the fall in the aquifers that is allegedly forcing residents to “travel further to find water”?

In fact, had Hannam checked, it is the usual story of rising population and more intensive agriculture, not global warming. From an AusAID-funded Water Safety Plan for Vanuatu:

Water quality in both urban in Port Vila and Luganville is generally very good with only calcium hardness to note. The only treatment is chlorination. However in both cases, aquifer levels are dropping while pumping demand is increasing. Both aquifers are under increasing pressure from agriculture, housing and other developments within the catchment protection zone that have been established…

No mention at all of global warming.

Does being a Fairfax alarmist mean never having to check the facts behind a scare?