Australia, Fire History

 Global warming - propaganda

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_abcs_unprecedented_fires_occured_11_times_already/

The ABC is furiously promoting the NSW fires as “unprecedented” and evidence of the global warming that actually paused 15 years ago.

This morning Fran Kelly, host of ABC Radio National Breakfast, claimed there had never been bushfires in October and implicated global warming:

The issue, some people say, is we’ve always dealt with fire, but not necessarily in October.

In fact, of 48 major bushfires in NSW between 1926 and 2006, 11 occurred in October or earlier:

North-Western NSW: Bushfires – 01/09/84 deaths – 4

Western Sydney and Central Coast, NSW: 16/10/91 deaths – 2

Hunter Valley, NSW: 01/09/96

Central Coast/Hunter Valley/south coast. 15/08/96

NW NSW : Bush Fire 30/10/01

Sydney, NSW: Bushfires 09/10/02

Northern NSW: Bushfire 27/09/02

Central Coast, QLD/NSW: Bushfires 27/09/02

Cessnock, NSW: Bushfire 19/10/02 deaths – 1

NSW Bushfires 24/09/06

Bushfires: Sydney and South Coast, NSW 24/09/06

These fires are serious. But the scale of destruction is nothing like the very worst we have faced:

The ‘Black Thursday’ fires of 6 February 1851 in Victoria, burnt the largest area (approximately 5 million ha) in European-recorded history and killed more than one million sheep and thousands of cattle as well as taking the lives of 12 people (CFA 2003a; DSE 2003b). On ‘Red Tuesday’, 1 February 1898 in Victoria 260,000 ha were burnt, 12 people were killed and 2000 buildings were destroyed (DSE 2003b). 

Between December 1938 to January 1939, 1.5-2.0 million ha were burnt, 71 people were killed and over 1000 homes destroyed in Victoria (DSE 2003b, 2003c). The most devastation occurred on ‘Black Friday’, 13 January 1939, when strong northerly winds intensified fires burning in almost every part of the state. Townships were destroyed and others badly damaged. So much ash and smoke was generated that ash fell as far away as New Zealand (DSE 2003c). Five years later in 1944, bushfires in Victoria burnt an estimated one million ha, killed between 15 and 20 people and destroyed more than 500 houses (DSE 2003b).

The ‘Ash Wednesday’ fires of 16 February 1983 caused severe damage in Victoria and South Australia. In Victoria, 210,000 ha were burnt, 2,080 houses destroyed, more than 27,000 stock lost and 47 people lost their lives (CFA 2003a; DSE 2003b, 2003d). Property-related damage was estimated at over $200m and more than 16,000 fire fighters, 1,000 police and 500 defence personnel fought the fires in Victoria. In South Australia, 208,000 ha were burnt, 383 houses were destroyed, 28 people were killed and property-related damage was estimated to be more than $200m (DSE 2003d).

Serious bushfires occurred in New South Wales in 1951-52, 1968-69, 1984-85 and 1993-94. In 1968-69 over one million ha were burnt and three people were killed (Linacre & Hobbs 1977; RFS 2003a). In 1984-85, 3.5 million ha were burnt, four lives were lost, 40,000 livestock were killed and $40m damage to property was caused (RFS 2003a). In 1993-94, bushfires burnt 800,000 ha, destroyed 287 residential properties and other premises and killed four people (Year Book Australia 1995 (1301.0)).

UPDATE

Reader Andrew of Randwick: 

The ABC’s 7.30 goes in hard that the current NSW bushfires are directly caused by global warming.

One interviewee is a bushfire researcher with facts about bushfires. The others are the usual talking heads (with vested interests) that can be relied upon to blame any event on global warming. Don Henry (Australian Conservation Foundation), Andy Pitman (UNSW - Climate System Science), and John Connor (Climate Institute) were each given their turn to put the affirmative case.... Then finally, almost as an afterthought, David Packham (Bushfire Management Researcher) is given the chance to say the cause is something completely different - it is the lack of fuel reduction in the cooler months that has established the pre-conditions for severe firestorms.

Well, well, well – that certainly opens a whole new can of worms – local/state governments opposing burn-offs and tree removal, local/state governments allowing building in high risk areas without special requirements. I can see a whole program there – but not the ABC. David Packham was only given 69 words (out of ~900 words) to put forward his message. It is so depressing our National Broadcaster has become a mouthpiece for campaigners rather than a source of factual information.

UPDATE

Gerard Henderson: 

According to Adam Bandt’s logic, the Greens are responsible for the devastating bushfires sweeping parts of NSW…

Bandt went on to suggest Abbott’s firefighting was a ‘’con’’ because he was ‘’helping start fires that put people’s lives in danger’’. In other words, the Prime Minister is not only a con artist but also an arsonist. Then, as if to prove when muck-racking the muck can go even lower, Bandt tweeted on Thursday, ‘’Tony Abbott’s plan means more bushfires for Australia’’.

Bandt’s attack overlooked two essential facts. First, the Coalition’s policy aim on the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 is the same as that of the Labor Party (which the Greens were aligned to for most of the past three years).

Second, if the Greens had supported Kevin Rudd’s carbon pollution reduction scheme in 2009 and 2010, Australia would already have a form of an emissions trading scheme in place. Bob Brown, Christine Milne and their Greens colleagues in the Senate opposed Rudd Labor’s reduction scheme and prevented it passing into legislation.

Of course, if Australia had introduced Rudd’s scheme it would have done nothing to stop the bushfires. Australia’s carbon emissions are but a tiny fraction of world output. Moreover, the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events remains uncertain.