Crime Measures

1. David Garrett (4,494) Says:
   November 25th, 2013 at 3:30 pm
   Weihana: I will write very slowly … just for you…Doing it in point form may make it even easier to follow:
   1. In the 1980′s the US was a very violent country, especially some of the larger cities.
   2. At that time many states – including California – were still experimenting with different regimes which met the “criminogenic needs” (I am not making that phrase up) of – say – hispanic and black offenders. They werent working, just as Kim Workman’s famous He Ara Hou programme wasn’t working here.
   3. In the early 90′s the American population got pissed off with ever increasing violence, and did a 180 degree U turn on penal policy. Most states adopted some kind of “sentence enhancement” policies, of which “three strikes” is a variant. New York hit the problem at both ends, with more comprehensive policing and “sentence enhancement” for repeat offenders. New York State got the biggest reductions of all.
   4. Crime generally, and violent crime in particular, dropped like a stone. Homicides went from 2500 odd annually in New York City to about 650. Violent crime in California dropped by 60% from 1994 to 2000.
   5. Left wing academics across the US – and around the world – adopted what the late Dennis Dutton described as “a feverish search for the ‘real reason’ crime had dropped so fast and so much. Any reason would do, so long as it wasnt something as simple as more punitive policies”. Because if you are a pointy head criminologist, it could not possibly be that.
   6. So now, you can take your pick from a whole heap of theories including more readily available abortions from 1972, and removing lead from petrol (I am not making that up). Or you can accept that removing the 20% who do 80% of the crime from society for 25 years or more has made American society very much safer than it was.
   There you go…I hope you can follow that.
2. Alan (689) Says: 
   November 25th, 2013 at 3:20 pm
   
   I suspect that much of the drop in the murder rate can be attributed to vastly improved A&E departments and better provisioned and crewed ambulances. People that would have been murdered in the past are not dying.
3. David Garrett (4,494) Says: 
   November 25th, 2013 at 3:35 pm
   
   Alan: You are quite right. The “trauma medicine factor” is responsible according to some pundits for a 30% or more drop in homicides. Put simply, if you get stabbed and lose a lot of blood, you are much less likely to die now that you were 20 years ago – so long as you get medical help quickly.