November 19th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
AG: easy to be negative. Write a guest post from the left. Explain what you think happened. We’ll judge the quality and thoughtfulness of your writing.
KIA: good post. I think you have the key trends right, I think in some areas you aren’t quite picking the causes with clear eyes. If the Republicans stick to conservative (RedBaiter style) policies, they won’t win next time either. I think their economics are broadly correct, they need to find a way to let go of some of the social policies that women, Hispanics and Blacks don’t like.
Imagine a candidate Christie who went into the primaries and told it like it is.
On social policy:
– The war on drugs isn’t working, we’re going to decriminalise most drugs and aim to reduce the dreadful incarceration rate of blacks.
– Illegal immigrants don’t really take people’s jobs, they mostly help America’s economy – and realistically lots of people have yard guys or nannies who are illegal, so we’re dropping the hypocrisy and normalising what we’re doing. Not a full amnesty, but the first steps to a sensible policy.
– Abortion and contraception is a matter for the individual or at worst the states, we won’t have the government fund abortions or contraception, we won’t force anyone (such as church hospitals) to perform abortions or fund contraception if they don’t want to, but we’re giving up on the campaign to make them illegal. Perhaps make third trimester illegal as a trade-off – most people agree with that.
– The war on drugs isn’t working, we’re going to decriminalise most drugs and aim to reduce the dreadful incarceration rate of blacks.
– Illegal immigrants don’t really take people’s jobs, they mostly help America’s economy – and realistically lots of people have yard guys or nannies who are illegal, so we’re dropping the hypocrisy and normalising what we’re doing. Not a full amnesty, but the first steps to a sensible policy.
– Abortion and contraception is a matter for the individual or at worst the states, we won’t have the government fund abortions or contraception, we won’t force anyone (such as church hospitals) to perform abortions or fund contraception if they don’t want to, but we’re giving up on the campaign to make them illegal. Perhaps make third trimester illegal as a trade-off – most people agree with that.
The reality is that these policies don’t lose that much vote – people who oppose these things have few other places to go. Sure, some of them might not vote, but most considered studies find that the religious right is much smaller than commonly believed.
Then combine that with straight talking on the economy:
– The USA cannot afford the current spending trajectory, it must change
– The USA cannot afford to have a military that is so much larger than other large countries combined. Reducing it somewhat also means reducing aspirations – fewer invasions
– Health is a mess not because of lack of govt funding – there is plenty of govt funding. The combination of tax breaks and regulations is what makes it a mess, sort that out properly, and make it a state responsibility again
– The tax system is untidy, the middle pays much of the tax, the top and the bottom pay less. The tax system needs rebalancing, with closing of loopholes and subsidies that support special interests, and in return a flattening of the broad-based tax rates
– Bruce Springstein is a great singer, doesn’t mean he knows jack about the economy – start taking your advice from economists, not from celebrities
– The USA cannot afford the current spending trajectory, it must change
– The USA cannot afford to have a military that is so much larger than other large countries combined. Reducing it somewhat also means reducing aspirations – fewer invasions
– Health is a mess not because of lack of govt funding – there is plenty of govt funding. The combination of tax breaks and regulations is what makes it a mess, sort that out properly, and make it a state responsibility again
– The tax system is untidy, the middle pays much of the tax, the top and the bottom pay less. The tax system needs rebalancing, with closing of loopholes and subsidies that support special interests, and in return a flattening of the broad-based tax rates
– Bruce Springstein is a great singer, doesn’t mean he knows jack about the economy – start taking your advice from economists, not from celebrities
I reckon a guy like Christie could pull this off. He’s very genuine, and unlikely to swing left or right – he’ll do what he believes and damn the consequences. Problem is that he might choose not to stand at all. And he needs to lose a bit of weight.
PaulL (4,927) Says:
November 19th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
PaulL (4,927) Says:
November 19th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
@aitkenmike: that’s my point. You have to hold those positions through the primary and still win. That’s the challenge for the Republican party, to work out how that’s possible.
Two things:
1. The current rules make it hard for people who hold positions like this. Initiatives like open primaries weaken the push to the extremes. For Senate, the equivalent is removing the gerrymandering of districts so that candidates that cannot hold the centre cannot win (i.e. you need independent or bipartisan votes to win).
1. The current rules make it hard for people who hold positions like this. Initiatives like open primaries weaken the push to the extremes. For Senate, the equivalent is removing the gerrymandering of districts so that candidates that cannot hold the centre cannot win (i.e. you need independent or bipartisan votes to win).
2. A strong candidate can weather this and still come through. Chris Christie potentially has the ability to sell a story like this – he’s a guy who doesn’t change his position just because it’s unpopular. Who knows what he’d do in a primary campaign, but I see him as more likely to hold to his true beliefs than Romney ever was
Bottom line is that you cannot play a contest like this by the “rules”. Romney religiously followed the “rules” and got nowhere. You have to have the courage to play outside the rules, and then force people to like you anyway. To some extent Obama did a bit of that – he was charismatic enough that he didn’t have to play too far to the left, even against Hilary in the primaries.
LOL, so PaulL basically wants the GOP to run Jon Huntsman next time. Ignoring completely that Huntsman ran this time and went nowhere. Also ignoring that you can’t run on a centrist platform in a US election any more – there is no such thing as fired up activist moderates. You need an army of activists and voters, and if you don’t espouse conservative ideas, none of those people are going to help you, or show up to vote. Just look at how many voters Bush got out, as opposed to McCain or Romney. It is much easier to be a staunch conservative candidate trying to sway swinging voters with your campaign’s momentum than it is to be a moderate trying to convince conservatives to turn out for you.
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