Bjorn Lomborg:- climate debate back to basic principles

http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=5473160936763325359

This transcript was typed from a recording of the program. The ABC cannot guarantee its complete accuracy because of the possibility of mishearing and occasional difficulty in identifying speakers.

Paul Comrie-Thomson: the climate debate in this country seems stuck at the Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire level. can't we do better than this? well consider the following: In the March 2011 edition of Quadrant magazine, we read this:
Paul Comrie-Thomson: Bjorn Lomborg, adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, and director of the Copenhagen Business Centre. His new documentary is called Cool It, and Michael, it's out in about three weeks. I cannot wait. Bjorn was speaking in Melbourne last Monday at an event presented by the Australian Institute for International Affairs.

Man-made emissions are likely to cause a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide during this century and this increase will continue to have a warming effect on global temperatures. But one of the disappointing distortions of the climate science debate is the claim that sceptics deny this relationship. What sceptics are sceptical about is the strength of these anthropogenic global warming effects.

That's from the Quadrant article 'The Intelligent Voter's guide to Global Warming' written by Geoffrey Lehmann, Peter Farrell and Dick Warburton.

But ten years earlier, in The Sceptical Environmentalist, Bjorn Lomborg stated this:

My book accepts the reality of manmade global warming but questions the way in which future scenarios have been arrived at and finds that forecasts of climate change of six degrees by the end of the century are not plausible. I shall argue that the limitations of computer modelling, the unrealist nature of the basic assumptions made about future technological change and political value-judgments have distorted the scenarios being presented to the public.

The initial response to Lomborg's dispassionate analysis was ugly. He was trashed by the environmentalist establishment. And over the next ten years it appeared he was labouring in the wilderness. Then, post-Copenhagen Lomborg was finally recognised by many as being the environmentalist that made the most sense.


In a recent address in Melbourne presented by the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Bjorn Lomborg recommended we bring the whole climate debate back to basic principles. Here now are edited highlights of his address.

Bjorn Lomborg: What is it we're actually trying to achieve, because we have a tendency in this climate debate to just jump right ahead and say that it's all about cutting carbon emissions. But let's just remember -- presumably this is about making a better world. And we've got to ask ourselves how do we do that. And I think a large part of what we do in the climate debate is mostly about feeling good rather than actually doing good. It's about something that's fashionable rather than something that actually does good, something that's rational. So I'd like to pause and say, 'What can actually work?'

Russian Climate Warming

James Delingpole


James Delingpole is a writer, journalist and broadcaster who is right about everything. He is the author of numerous fantastically entertaining books including 365 Ways to Drive a Liberal Crazy, Welcome To Obamaland: I've Seen Your Future And It Doesn't Work, How To Be Right, and the Coward series of WWII adventure novels. His website is www.jamesdelingpole.com. Climategate goes SERIAL: now the Russians confirm that UK climate scientists manipulated data to exaggerate global warming


By James Delingpole Politics Last updated: December 16th, 2009
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020126/climategate-goes-serial-now-the-russians-confirm-that-uk-climate-scientists-manipulated-data-to-exaggerate-global-warming/
Climategate just got much, much bigger. And all thanks to the Russians who, with perfect timing, dropped this bombshell just as the world’s leaders are gathering in Copenhagen to discuss ways of carbon-taxing us all back to the dark ages.


Feast your eyes on this news release from Rionovosta, via the Ria Novosti agency, posted on Icecap. (Hat Tip: Richard North)

A discussion of the November 2009 Climatic Research Unit e-mail hacking incident, referred to by some sources as “Climategate,” continues against the backdrop of the abortive UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen (COP15) discussing alternative agreements to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol that aimed to combat global warming.

The incident involved an e-mail server used by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich, East England. Unknown persons stole and anonymously disseminated thousands of e-mails and other documents dealing with the global-warming issue made over the course of 13 years.

Controversy arose after various allegations were made including that climate scientists colluded to withhold scientific evidence and manipulated data to make the case for global warming appear stronger than it is.

Climategate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data.

The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory. Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations.

The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.

The HadCRUT database includes specific stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than stations facilitating uninterrupted observations.

On the whole, climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations.

IEA analysts say climatologists use the data of stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations.

The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world’s land mass. The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to assess the scale of such exaggeration.

Global-temperature data will have to be modified if similar climate-date procedures have been used from other national data because the calculations used by COP15 analysts, including financial calculations, are based on HadCRUT research.

What the Russians are suggesting here, in other words, is that the entire global temperature record used by the IPCC to inform world government policy is a crock.

As Richard North says: This is serial.

UPDATE: As Steve McIntyre reports at ClimateAudit, it has long been suspected that the CRU had been playing especially fast and loose with Russian – more particularly Siberian – temperature records. Here from March 2004, is an email from Phil Jones to Michael Mann.

Recently rejected two papers (one for JGR and for GRL) from people saying CRU has it
wrong over Siberia. Went to town in both reviews, hopefully successfully. If either
appears
I will be very surprised, but you never know with GRL.
Cheers
Phil

And here at Watts Up With That is a guest post by Jeff Id of the Air Vent
And here is what one of the commenters has to say about the way the data has been cherry-picked and skewed for political ends:

The crux of the argument is that the CRU cherry picked data following the same methods that have been done everywhere else. They ignored data covering 40% of Russia and chose data that showed a warming trend over statistically preferable alternatives when available. They ignored completeness of data, preferred urban data, strongly preferred data from stations that relocated, ignored length of data set.
One the final page, there is a chart that shows that CRU’s selective use of 25% of the data created 0.64C more warming than simply using all of the raw data would have done. The complete set of data show 1.4C rise since 1860, the CRU set shows 2.06C rise over the same period.

Not, of course, dear readers that I’m in any way tempted to crow about these latest revelations. After all, so many of my colleagues, junior and senior, have been backing me on this one to the hilt….

Oh, if anyone speaks Russian, here’s the full report.

Truism of Eating S#%t ? ?

kaya (1,267) Says:
April 17th, 2011 at 9:05 pm


An experienced economist and a novice economist are walking down the road. They come across a pile of dog shit lying on the asphalt. The experienced economist says to the novice, “If you eat it I’ll give you $20,000!” The novice economist runs his optimization problem and figures out he’s better off eating the shit, so he does and collects the money.
Continuing along the same road they almost step into yet another pile of dog shit. The novice economist says to his friend, “Now, if you eat this pile of shit I’ll give you $20,000.” After evaluating the proposal, the experienced economist eats the dog shit and takes the money.

They continue on. The novice economist starts thinking and finally says to his friend, “Listen, we both have the same amount of money we had before, but we both ate shit. I don’t see us being better off.”

The experienced economist answers, “Well, that’s true, but you overlooked the fact that we’ve just been involved in $40,000 of trade.”

ben (1,697) Says:

April 17th, 2011 at 9:22 pm

Kaya: haha cute example, but there is a gain from trade here.
The only way the experienced economist would offer $20,000 to the novice is if he got $20,000+x in enjoyment watching that.
The only way the novice would accept the offer is if he got $20,000 – y >  0, in surplus, if y is the cost to him of eating shit.
Rinse and repeat for the second episode.
Although they both walk away with the same money, there is a gain from trade of 2(x – y) > 0.
 Each has received enjoyment in excess of eating shit, which is a prerequisite for trade to occur.
Were that not true, nobody eats shit.
------------------------------
Taoism: Shit happens. Catholicism: If shit happens, you deserve it. Protestantism: Let shit happen to someone else. Scientology: Crazy shit Hinduism: This shit has happened before. Islam: If shit happens, it is the will of Allah. Buddhism: If shit happens, it isn’t really shit. Judaism: Why does this shit always happen to us? Athiesm: No Shit.

Obama morphing to Bush? ? ?

http://biggovernment.com/oftheeising/2011/04/07/from-critic-to-convert-obama-adopts-the-bush-doctrine/#idc-cover

comment avoicenmany 79p · 2 days ago


Let us do a little comparison between Bush and Obumbles the Clown here.

This is worded in such a way that regular commenter's here at big are IMHO non partisan, but more so fact based and Conservative. It is also so the likes of ones like, just to pull a name "huskerluvsbo" and the MM/Huffpo crowd might understand ( we all can have wishful thinking now), of course I know that those will find invalid ways to argue with these comparisons but Pfft WTF I like fiction.. Enjoy:-

~   If George W. Bush had been the first President to need a TelePrompTer installed to be able to get through a press conference, would you have laughed and said this is more proof of how inept he is on his own and is really controlled by smarter men behind the scenes?

~   If George W. Bush had spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to take Laura Bush to a play in NYC, would you have approved?

~   If George W. Bush had reduced your retirement plan's holdings of GM stock by 90% and given the unions a majority stake in GM, would you have approved?

heart to evil

waterwillows


March 27, 2011 12:38 AM

Jeremiah 17:9


The heart is deceitful above all things,
And it is exceedingly weak - who can know it?

I suspect that when one finds evil attractive or in accord with ones own (secret) desires, there is a tendancy to overlord it; or intellectually superior it.

But it is a game of deception. One that fools the player more than anyone else.

I am no longer surprised that the number of people who choose evil are greater than I first knew. Many do find it attractive. But it is a bad end.

Mind drain

Fletch (1,883) Says:
March 20th, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Kimble. Lefties can never make decisions quickly.

Very interesting article HERE by a once-leftist about what gets Lefties outraged. It’s not what outrages most people – it focuses on the self…

once I snapped out of my leftist trance, I realized something startling: I was outraged about all of the wrong things. In fact, leftist outrage is derived not from our Higher Selves, but from another place entirely: the lowly self.

This explains why the left can be so apoplectic one minute, and then strangely silent the next. Take, for example, the mass slaughter of our soldiers at Fort Hood. Obama didn’t even interrupt his Native American shout-out to denounce the killings.

We hardly hear a peep these days about Ft. Hood, the infiltration of our military (!) by a Jihadist. I recently referred to the atrocity when speaking to a progressive friend; she could barely recall what I was talking about. Yet, when a lone, apparently psychotic young man, created a bloodbath in Tucson, the left was all over this one.

The outrage about Tucson was fast and furious, with fingers pointed directly rightward. The Tea Parties and Sarah Palin were vilified by the MSM and progressive bloggers.

And, yet, when Palin defended herself by labeling the blame game a “blood libel,” we all witnessed what happened. People went ballistic; they were outraged!
[.....]
The left’s outrage is not completely real; it is manufactured; contrived. The faux outrage is as fabricated as those feel-good slogans about Hope and Change.

The left’s legendary compassion is politically expedient, though elaborately disguised. Brutalization of journalists, a Jihad against our soldiers…and yet, so little outrage. There is no currency in these events; in fact, they must be swept under the rug to hide the truth about the “Religion of Peace.”

But notice how Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell inflames the masses. Watch sparks fly in the battle for gay marriage. Wisconsin is exploding because unionized teachers want collective bargaining. The left’s outrage is self-righteous because it is laser focused on the self.

Not only is the left’s outrage ego-based, but it is rooted in greed. Take the left’s centerpiece issue, social and economic justice. What do those flowery phrases actually mean, anyway? Aren’t they just doublespeak for envy, coveting one’s neighbor, and a gimme-gimme mentality?

When an injustice serves progressive ideology, we see the outrage in full-color display. However, at other times, the silence is deafening — or there is disingenuous posturing.

So true

Welfare Social Welfare vs Charity God

The Tragedy Of American Compassion


By Marvin Olasky

http://www.thepriceofliberty.org/compassion.htm
January 27, 2005



(condensed from a review of the book by Marvin Olasky, "The Tragedy of American Compassion". Click on the link to read the entire book free!)

...Many in the poverty trade today would like us to believe that the difficulties and temptations people face now are somehow unique, more complicated and intractable than any in the past. But 17th, 18th, and 19th century America had it all: alcoholism, drug addiction, illegitimacy, crime, unemployment, abuse, social upheaval, grinding poverty. The crucial difference: those engaged in charity had a frank, clear-headed, unsentimental view of human nature - and they believed the problems were moral and spiritual ones, requiring moral and spiritual solutions.



Throughout our history, private, predominantly religious charities proliferated: ...literally hundreds of such groups that sprang up across the country ... The crucial understanding was simple yet profound: people were helped because other people took a personal interest in them.



And for decades, there was a consensus among those engaged in the work of these organizations, and among society at large: that some poor (destitute through no fault of their own) were deserving of help and others were not; that much poverty resulted when human beings, of their own free will, chose destructive paths (alcohol and vice); that such erring individuals should and could, with God's help, change course; that all able to work, must; that those who helped must give of their time, must give of their love, must give religious counsel and encouragement and admonition; that money alone, given indiscriminately, was poisonously destructive.



Olasky summarizes the ideas that energized charity workers a century ago...



AFFILIATION. Charity organizations instructed all volunteers to work hard at restoring family ties;...



BONDING. The charitable volunteer was expected to become deeply involved in the lives of those in need ... (contrast with today's social worker, juggling dozens of welfare "clients" and mountains of bureaucratic paperwork.)



CATEGORIZATION. Charities did not treat all the same. There were those "worthy of relief" (orphans, the aged, the terminally ill, etc.); others were given a work test, often to chop wood, and classified as "needing work rather than relief." The alcoholic, unscrupulous, or lazy who were unwilling to change were labeled "unworthy, not entitled to relief." Volunteers visited them to exhort, not subsidize.



DISCERNMENT ... Volunteers were alert to potential fraud. They also knew better than to give money to alcoholics, which was considered immoral...



EMPLOYMENT. "If a man will not work, neither shall he eat," ... Work by the able-bodied was considered critical to health - physical, spiritual, psychological, familial, societal - the undebatable first principle of American charity ... In the absence of a job, able-bodied men chopped wood for the charitable organization's use, and women sewed clothing for the charity's distribution.



FREEDOM. This was defined as the opportunity to work and worship without governmental restriction, to get a foot on the lowest rung of the ladder...



GOD. Theology was the essential key to American charity for centuries. Relief was never separate from the acknowledgment of the spiritual reclamation and redemption possible for fallen human beings. And spiritual transformation was the only thing that could change an alcoholic, addict or abuser into a productive, temperate citizen.



The "tragedy" of the book's title occurred when this slow process, this one-by-one, individual-by-individual, person-to-person work, was seen by the elites early in this century as not being enough. Why not do more? Why not make relief universal and immediate? The elites disagreed with the common view that poverty was often the result of vice, freely chosen. They, instead, believed that people were naturally good; the mass transformation of society and elimination of poverty were possible if wealth was redistributed. And of course, charitable work had to be rid of this bothersome religious claptrap.



... The job to make relief universal to anyone who qualified (that is, anyone who was entitled to it) was handed over to the state... Gone was the emphasis on personal responsibility. Gone was any penalty of able-bodied and mentally competent individuals who would not work. Gone was any scrutiny of behavior, since that was caused by "society" anyway.



... Has poverty been eliminated, or even reduced? And what of the poverty of spirit that stalks the streets of every once-great American city?



Americans have, by bitter experience, once again learned what those in centuries past already knew: that relief provided by the state is "not generous but stingy - stingy in human contact, stingy in its estimation of what human beings mad after Gods image are capable of doing and becoming." Now that we have learned, it may finally be time to re-examine - and recreate - the great generosity of traditional American compassion.

A good comment below Social Justice vs = God?

What do we wish for?

that reminds me of the chap walking through the forest .


a bear came charging at him , and pinned him down.

it was about to eat him ,when the chap clasped his hands together.

he said god, i have never asked you for anything before,but i am asking you to make

this bear a christian.

there was a clap of thunder,the bear sat up,put it's paws together and said,

"for what I am about to receive may I truly thank you.''

be careful what we ask for and how we ask.

Political Correctness vs Truth

Journalist in France Convicted for Anti-Muslim Hate Speech

http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2011/02/25/journalist-in-france-convicted-for-anti-muslim-hate-speech/
By Selwyn Duke, on February 25th, 2011

Eric Zemmour made the mistake of pointing out that most drug dealers in France are blacks and Arabs.

We've heard a lot about Geert Wilders, the Dutch parliamentarian whose warnings about Muslim influence in his nation placed him in the crosshairs of the powers-that-be. But while the tow-headed modern-day Templar has thus far dodged the hangman on Truth-speech charges, another intrepid defender of Western civilization has not been so lucky. And we haven't heard much about him.

He is French journalist Eric Zemmour, and he was just convicted this week of "inciting racism." Writes The New American's R. Cort Kirkwood:

Zemmour's "controversial" remarks included his observation that most drug dealers in France were black or Arab, and that employers "have the right" to deny employment to those two groups of people.

Zemmour's criminal speech occurred on a popular talk show during a discussion of why French police seem to stop minorities more than whites. Said Zemmour: "But why are they stopped 17 times? Why? Because most dealers are blacks and Arabs. That's a fact."

So Zemmour wound up in the French dock, and must now pay $14,000 to five groups that sued him for racism.

According to the New York Times, the French court said Zemmour had "gone beyond the permitted bounds of the right to freedom of speech," and that ". . . Zemmour had a particular responsibility to respect those limits as a 'professional of the media and of expression.'"

obama's birth certificate

http://www.wnd.com/index.php/index.php?pageId=267345
"I don't know what the facts are regarding Barack Obama's early life because he has made it a point to withhold virtually all documentation that would be meaningful to support his story. Obviously Obama has a very big credibility problem in this area with the American people. Polls show most Americans don't believe his story. A dozen states are working on legislation to ensure we don't have questions of eligibility plaguing the nation after the next election. But understand this is not a problem of my creation. This is a problem of Obama's creation. It's up to him to persuade the nation of his story, not me. I would also suggest it's not up to you as a journalist. Do I think it's a healthy thing that most Americans don't believe Obama's birth story? No, I don't. But even his good friend, Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie, seems terribly frustrated that Obama won't simply reveal the documentary evidence that might clear up all these questions. So why don't you ask Obama why he isn't more forthcoming? Don't we like it in America when our leaders are open, honest and transparent? Isn't that the kind of administration Obama promised?"


Read more: How to handle the 'birther' question http://www.wnd.com/index.php/index.php?pageId=267345#ixzz1F2WUdzWL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sinner says:


March 24, 2011 at 20:09

Obama is only being asked for proof of his place of birth because he is black.

No, he’s only being asked for proof of his place of birth because he isn’t American.



If Obama cannot prove he meets this requirement he must resign.

It is already clear that he cannot prove his citizenship.



If it is shown that he always knew he could not meet this requirement, he should be jailed for the greatest fraud of all time.

As head of Harvard Law Review, it is beyond question that he must have always known this. But then that is not fraud: it is treason – and the remedy is not imprisonment.